Ok, it’s official. I’m getting nervous.(Part 2)

Yesterday, I looked at how Obama was damaging his own message and why it troubling. This is a look at the second reason that I’m worried: We haven’t come close to seeing the full sound and the fury of rightwing attacks and braindead media talking points for this election cycle, and I'm terrified of how Obama's campaign is going to fight them. And for those who think that things have been bad in the media so far, just brace yourself because it’s going to get a lot worse. And I mean A LOT worse.

The landscape is about to become much less favorable in two ways. First the McCain campaign will pull out all the stops to slime Barack. He saw last week that he can gain some traction by going entirely negative so expect that to continue. But instead of just hinting at racebaiting and mild amounts of lying, there will be a full scale blitz of this stuff. I'm guessing that by the end of September Barack Obama will be forced to either to support or denounce any black person in the history of time. That may be a joke, but based on how stupidly our country deals with race I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s where were headed.

The second way it gets worse is that as we get closer to the election, the legitimate differences between the candidates will be minimized and worse yet, the media will move into full "Hillary Clinton primary mode" where they attempt to tighten the race by only being critical of one candidate. As in any election, when we don’t talk about issues, it’s not just our democracy that loses, but 90% of the time it means that Democrats lose as well.

Now, none of these developments are a death sentence for Obama’s campaign, but as Mike Lux points out, his campaign seems to be in full “play it safe mode”, which is the quickest and most effective way to lose an election. Mike Lux is a legitimate political insider, and he even starts his post with the following disclaimer:

As readers of OpenLeft know, I am one of those folks who personally doesn't like to criticize the Democratic Presidential nominee once the general election campaign gets underway. For me, as I have written, whatever faults they exhibit in the campaign almost never outweigh the risk of doing anything to damage their chances of winning. I believe in gritting my teeth and muttering curses to myself whenever they disappoint me, but not saying much critically in public and doing whatever I am asked to do to help the team win.

That puts him at odds with myself for one, but also it shows his dedication to putting Obama in the white house. And it also gives him more credibility when he says this:

However, when the campaign is drifting seriously off course and threatening their chances to win, I make an exception on the no criticism rule. And I fear we're reaching that point. I think I know what the problem is, too. It's that Capitol Hill Caution has taken over the campaign.

. . .

I am haunted by this because of my past experience with Capitol Hill-shaped "wisdom" around elections- being told by my brilliant young friend David Plouffe, who was running the DCCC in 1998, that the PFAW/MoveOn.org time to move on regarding impeachment campaign was a huge mistake, when in fact it was the theme that ended up turning the tide on congressional elections in our favor that year; being told by Gore's people in 2000 that if they just didn't respond to the NRA's attacks on the gun issue, the issue wouldn't have an impact; being told by Gephardt's top aides in 2002 that the only way to win the congressional elections that fall was to "take the war off the table" so that Democrats could get on with other issues; being told by Kerry's team in 2004 that if they just ignored the Swift Boaters, they wouldn't get any attention.

Caution kills when it comes to national elections, and the caution of my friends in Obamaland is hurting him. It's why despite the good coverage of the overseas trip and one gaffe after another by McCain, Obama is drifting down in the polls. And in an election where it is very likely we will lose some older blue collar white voters a Democrat would normally get, caution will kill us in the fall by dampening the enthusiasm Obama has sparked among young voters and new voters in the primary.

The Obama campaign's caution is allowing the McCain's campaign to define Obama and the terms of the debate- and as Drew Westen points out here, they are doing much of it at the unconscious level. Obama needs to be direct about confronting the image of him that the McCain team is trying to create. Unfortunately, as the stories above suggest, the Democratic establishment has generally tended to be fearful about confronting their attackers directly. On impeachment, on war and national security, on Swift Boat attacks, on NRA attacks about guns, on immigration, on way too many issues, the establishment Democratic response has been to avoid the issues on which they are being attacked. But our recent history has proven again and again that avoidance of problematic attacks doesn't work- you have to have the confidence to answer back and define the debate in your own terms.

I feel the tightness in my friends in Obamaland: they know that all the dynamics favor the Democrats, that McCain is a weak, uninspiring candidate running a weak, uninspired campaign. They know they should be winning this thing, and they are playing not to lose, which is the worst thing you can do in Presidential politics. The Obama team at the top hasn't been good at getting help or letting people in the door, because they feel sure that if they stay in control of the message, they will win. But, to my wonderful friends on the inside of the campaign, it's time to loosen the reins a little, not be so tight and careful and cautious, because you are in real danger with the course you are on.

Like he says, there’s plenty of time to change the dynamics of the race, but this is why I’m getting worried. How Obama’s campaign responds to dropping poll numbers this week should tell us a lot about whether they’ve learned their lesson.