Wednesday, October 24, 2012

To Panic or Not To Panic

There are plenty of stories out there about the election tightening, and on some level that's true. Obama has been losing ground to Romney in the polls since that first debate, proving wrong people (such as myself) who didn't think debates would have a large effect on the election .

But how worried should we be? What does this mean?

It's times like this we're blessed to live in a time where we have Nate Silver's polling analysis to tell us what to think.

A few basics:
-Individual polls don't matter, so don't panic about them.
-National polls should be important, but aren't, because we have we are still dumb enough to use the electoral college.
-Polling averages are the way to go, as are state by state polls of the few states our idiotic system decided will count this time around.
-You don't need to remember all these facts if you just read Nate Silver's blog, and trust him.

Currently, based on his electoral college predictions, Nate Silver has Obama chances to win at 68.1%, and that's actually been increasing over the last week.

Don't panic.

That's not to say Obama can't lose, just that these dire headlines don't reflect the current state of the race in our crazy electoral system. Also, there is no one worse than our political media, and they desperately want this to be a close race, not because of any bias, but because it's better for their business. Since the first debate the race has gotten closer in the popular vote, which should be what matters, but is actually completely irrelevant because our country still decides elections using a system that was put in place to give more power to slave-holding states. 

No comments:

Post a Comment