Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Pre- Iowa Caucus Predictions

First, if you didn't know how fucked up/undemocratic the caucus process is, Kos provides a reminder. ABC news has a less profane explanation if that's what you prefer.

For what it's worth, here are my predictions:


1) Edwards
2) Obama
3) Clinton

Note, even if the first two are switched around, I think that it won't be as close as people think, and it could be 5 or so percentage points between each of them. I think Edwards will probably win it, but for some reason I have a pretty strong feeling that Hillary will finish third regardless. I'm probably just picking what I'd hope to see, but what the hell, call it The Audacity of Hope...

1) Huckabee
2) Romney

I think the top two in this one could be really close, and I see Huckabee just edging it. I think Paul could also sneak into third just cause it isn't a secret ballot democratic process, and his supporters seem the most fanatical.

Also, I've told this to some people, but just in case, here is my best guess for the primaries as a whole. Obama beats out Edwards, but it lasts long enough so that my vote in Maryland might actually have some significance.(Yes! Rahul and I weren't lying to those kids in the registration drive after all! Their vote does matter!) And for the republicans I see it being Huckabee vs. McCain, with McCain winning in the end and movement conservatives being talked down from bridges across the country. Seriously, if that became the republican battle, few things would be funnier. I mean, as upset as I am that Hillary Clinton is a serious contender, that would be like having her and Joe Lieberman be the only two candidates running for democratic nomination. You wouldn't know whether to shove pencils in your ears or eyes first to stop the pain.

Anyway, if you're interested, leave your picks in the comments, and we can see how wrong we were Friday morning.


  1. Alright, so i was trying to find the West Wing Iowa Caucus clip from season 6, but youtube does not have it..

    so here is my prediction:



    Give Obama the edge with crazy groundwork and the Kucinich concession....Clinton eaks out a second place with her higher spending blitz towards the end of December..but Edwards shot to third may couple with Obama's tally to dominate the headlines and take their story into New Hampshire..

    Of course..these guesses come from nowhere of importance...
    but winner gets a cookie in the morning..

  2. UPDATE:
    Obama carries the table:


    Very interesting...I'll comment more in the morning, but I'll leave this question to anyone up late posting:

    Obama's speech, what did you think?