Monday, January 7, 2008

Post Caucus-Pre Hampshire thoughts

Wow, that was pretty wild. Obama's win was bigger than just about everyone thought, and Hillary's brutal fall was nice to watch from so many angles. And I gotta say Obama's victory speech was amazing on a lot of levels, and mainly because it had the feel of a convention acceptance speech, which would scare the crap out of me if I were running against him.

So, general thoughts going forward:
  • I can't see Hillary putting up much more of a fight if she finishes third in NH. I don't think she'll drop that far though, cause it looks like Edwards is gonna bank his chances on NV and SC, but we'll see how things turn out. When Hillary's campaign gets desperate, they seem to start doing incredibly stupid things.
  • The only way I can see Edwards giving Obama a run is if Hillary can get knocked out, and it can become a horse race between the two of them. As long as Hillary stays in the race, the media will continue ignore Edwards, and keep the narrative of a two person (Hillary vs Obama) race.
  • I think this is Obama's to lose, and I gotta say, I really see him winning it. I don't see Hillary finishing third in NH, and and as a result not dropping out until it becomes painfully obvious to everyone involved that she won't win. If your lead strategist has made his career from bullshiting polls and statistics based on what you want to hear, I don't see a reality based assessment of the race any time soon.
  • For the republicans, it looks like the Huckabee vs. McCain shitshow could be a real possibility. I think Romney is done, and after watching that debate, I'd say it's like 50/50 on whether Fred Thompson is actually alive.
  • I heard this funny joke the other day. What did Rudy Giuliani say after he finished 6th in Iowa? The Answer: 9/11! Wait... that wasn't a joke, thats what he said. Rudy Giuliani everyone! He plays here every Tuesday night!
  • This is just a personal favor to me, and this isn't the first time I've bitched about this... But will someone please ask Hillary Clinton just what the fuck she is talking about when she cites her 35 years of fighting for change? I feel like I'm losing my mind here. This would be like if a major presidential candidate started repeating something that is blatantly false in every campaign speech and debate for 9 months, and everyone just decided to agree that it was true and not ask them to back it up. On second thought, I think I'm gonna get some sleep.


  1. NAFTA was change. Welfare "reform" was change. "Don't ask, don't tell" was change. Not the changes we wanted, but... And then there is always the hope that she will finally get that Flag Burning Amendment passed.

  2. And while we are getting so excited about Obama, let's remember how excited we were about Bill Clinton, only to be so crushed and disappointed. Looking at the line up of advisers, contributors and positions on issues like trade, I am not sure we are in for anything other than another crushing disappointment, assuming Obama makes it. That said, it represents progress to have a biracial leader who galvanizes the younger generation. Other than that, I am skeptical about how "change" is going to be defined, much less implemented.

  3. The Clinton comparison is worrisome, just because Bill Clinton's campaign was very populist in rhetoric. What we can hope for from Obama is a John Edwards-like awakening and housecleaning of his worrisome advisers.

  4. Except that power corrupts absolutely, and I am not sure Edwards would be immune to it either except he is more authentic and has more integrity (IMHO). It seems that that the closer one is to the center of power the harder it is to stay clear on ideals and resist corporate power and the special interests that one "owes." Look at what happened to Lula in Brazil. Sorry to be so cynical - I am finding this whole race depressing even in the face (or especially in the face) of everyone's enthusiasm, which just feels so unchecked an naive. I guess I have to admit I think our democracy is broken until we can get money out of politics. I'd really like to believe, but it just doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Sort of like my attitude toward religion.

  5. I think Sirota said it best about Obama when he compared himself to his friend who had a UFO poster in his room that said "I want to Believe". Something that may not quite be understood, is there are no two people who would be more eager and willing to be die-hard Obama supporters than you and me. We "discovered" him after all. And after he gives some of those speeches it brings you back to why he made me feel that way when I first saw him. But when you look behind the curtain it's not a pretty sight. And it's hard to get your hopes too high when you think our best bet is for him to fire half his staff.

  6. Also, well said on the Lula part, a more recent example of someone elected on a much more radical brand of change rhetoric.