tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8785387207570374478.post1959352382417785238..comments2023-12-24T05:04:37.381-05:00Comments on The Train of Thought: Nobel AftershocksJJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02082265494052859780noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8785387207570374478.post-88614796966960645822010-10-14T20:30:14.982-04:002010-10-14T20:30:14.982-04:00Timeframe- Hard to say, and I'd be extremely ...Timeframe- Hard to say, and I'd be extremely suspicious of anyone who gives a specific guess. There are a few upcoming dates that are probably playing some role in the timing, though- the 5th Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee is meeting tomorrow or the next day, and it's a good bet that some statements have been made public in an attempt to influence the outcome of that. it's possible that they'll issue some sort of statement on political reform, but that might not end up happening and even if it does, I wouldn't expect much in the way of detailed policy to emerge.<br /><br />More generally, though, the 2012 politburo shakeup is going to see a massive change of the top level of chinese leadership, and different groups are definitely jockeying to get more of their people into the 9 person council and other higher organs.<br /><br />A few people have said that based on the best guesses they have now, the most likely compositions of the 2012 politburo probably won't go for drastic changes, but will instead follow the momentum they find upon taking office. Thus reformists are trying to get that ball rolling before they leave office, while their opponents on the authoritarian side want to hold the line where it is now- motivated both by their own desire for power and also a fear that political reform will lead china to a USSR-style meltdown.<br /><br />Internet and social control- China makes the following assumptions: Beijing controls the media, education, and civil society, such as there is. The internet is on some level uncontrollable, but it can be managed by making it extremely difficult to find information, and extremely dangerous to propagate it yourself. So information is still there, but you have to do some serious digging to get to it. And if you do find it, you can't really spread it very far without popping up on their radar and getting 'taken out for tea,' as chinese bloggers euphemistically call the visits paid to them by police.<br /><br />this doesn't seal up all the cracks, but it doesn't have to- it just has to contain it to the group of people who were going to find out anyway. as long as they arent able to use the internet as a soapbox with which to appeal to the masses, that's fine. it isn't mean to stop everything, it's just meant to dim the volume to a point where beijing-controlled discourse is far far louder.<br /><br />the problem is that the cost of doing this is growing every year. the 'internal control' budget has been skyrocketing- policing all the internet and all the campuses and all the unrest and all of tibetan and uyghur china adds up. its one of the problems that is going to grow untenable, and will eventually force beijings hand. whether the people who recognize this will be able to gain power and issue some course corrections is pretty much the mystery of the day.J.N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13390940116612963160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8785387207570374478.post-55783065705277912412010-10-14T12:35:07.541-04:002010-10-14T12:35:07.541-04:00Wow! Those are some impressively reformist stateme...Wow! Those are some impressively reformist statements - almost more America-style idealistic than America these days. I've always thought that the Internet renders censorship obsolete as a method of societal control, but wouldn't necessarily expect [any major portion of] the Chinese government to agree. If they do even go ahead, what sort of timeframe do you think is possible for reforms of this level?6.54https://www.blogger.com/profile/16142293932150029874noreply@blogger.com